USA

Missouri Is the Perfect Case Study for What Went Wrong This Election

Missouri’s tightly contested Senate race provides a stark illustration of the forces that shaped this year’s midterm elections. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley, who won by a slim margin in 2018, has campaigned as a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, while Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine has presented herself as a moderate alternative. The outcome of the race will have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate, and it is likely to be a bellwether for the future of the Republican Party.

Missouri is a microcosm of the political divide that has intensified in recent years, and the outcome of the Senate race will be closely watched by both parties. If Hawley wins, it will be seen as a victory for Trump’s brand of politics and a repudiation of the moderate wing of the Republican Party. If Valentine wins, it will be seen as a sign that voters are rejecting Trumpism and looking for a more centrist approach to government.

USA

How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios

Scenario 1: Biden Wins Decisively

A clear victory for Biden, with a margin of over 5% in the popular vote and electoral college. This scenario would likely result in a Democratic-controlled Senate and House, giving Biden a strong mandate for his agenda.

Scenario 2: Trump Wins Narrowly

A close victory for Trump, with less than a 5% margin. This would likely lead to a contested election, with legal challenges and potential recounts. The outcome could be uncertain for days or even weeks.

Scenario 3: Electoral College Tie

An unlikely but possible scenario where neither candidate wins a majority of electoral votes. The House would then choose the President, with each state having one vote. This could result in a surprise victory for a third-party candidate.

Scenario 4: A Hung Election

A highly contested election with no clear winner. The Supreme Court could potentially intervene to decide the outcome. This scenario could lead to political gridlock and instability.