USA

What Are The Swing States Of The Future?

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, political analysts are turning their attention to the states that could swing the result. Traditionally, the swing states have been a handful of battleground states that could go either way. However, the political landscape is changing, and the traditional swing states may not be as important in future elections.

One reason for this is that the country is becoming increasingly polarized. The two major political parties are becoming more distinct in their ideologies, and voters are increasingly identifying with one party or the other. This makes it less likely that voters in swing states will be swayed by moderate candidates.

Another reason for the changing landscape is the rise of social media. Social media has made it easier for candidates to reach voters directly, and it has also made it easier for voters to get their news from sources that align with their political views. This can lead to voters becoming more entrenched in their beliefs and less likely to consider candidates from the other party.

These charts show how Trump’s strategy to lose by less won back several swing states

In key swing states, Trump’s revised campaign strategy – focused not on winning but on losing by a smaller margin – appears to have succeeded. By realigning his rhetoric to emphasize specific state issues, Trump appears to have regained some lost ground, particularly among white voters. In Wisconsin, for example, Trump’s revised strategy contributed to a reduction in the vote margin for Biden by approximately 5 points, possibly due to his increased focus on local manufacturing concerns.

State of the Race: National Polls Tighten With 8 Days to Go

距离投票日仅剩 8 天,百家争鸣的全国民意调查显示,局势持续胶着。民意调查聚合网站 FiveThirtyEight 的最新数据显示,拜登的支持率维持在 51.8%,而特朗普的支持率则为 44.4%。这些数字在误差范围内,表明这场竞选对双方来说都是一场势均力敌的较量。

毫无疑问,本届选举对于国家而言是至关重要的,选民的热情也达到了历史高峰。民意调查机构报告称,提前投票率很高,目前已有超过 6000 万张选票。

虽然全国民意调查显示,拜登略有领先,但特朗普在摇摆州的竞选活动却出奇地强劲。最终结果可能会取决于这些州的选民投票的意愿,以及选民对经济、医疗保健和气候变化等關鍵議題的观点。