USA

Missouri Is the Perfect Case Study for What Went Wrong This Election

Missouri’s tightly contested Senate race provides a stark illustration of the forces that shaped this year’s midterm elections. Incumbent Republican Josh Hawley, who won by a slim margin in 2018, has campaigned as a staunch supporter of former President Donald Trump, while Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine has presented herself as a moderate alternative. The outcome of the race will have significant implications for the balance of power in the Senate, and it is likely to be a bellwether for the future of the Republican Party.

Missouri is a microcosm of the political divide that has intensified in recent years, and the outcome of the Senate race will be closely watched by both parties. If Hawley wins, it will be seen as a victory for Trump’s brand of politics and a repudiation of the moderate wing of the Republican Party. If Valentine wins, it will be seen as a sign that voters are rejecting Trumpism and looking for a more centrist approach to government.

These charts show how Trump’s strategy to lose by less won back several swing states

In key swing states, Trump’s revised campaign strategy – focused not on winning but on losing by a smaller margin – appears to have succeeded. By realigning his rhetoric to emphasize specific state issues, Trump appears to have regained some lost ground, particularly among white voters. In Wisconsin, for example, Trump’s revised strategy contributed to a reduction in the vote margin for Biden by approximately 5 points, possibly due to his increased focus on local manufacturing concerns.

USA

This Election, It May Actually Come Down to Turnout

This Election, It May Actually Come Down to Turnout

As Election Day approaches, pundits and analysts are closely watching voter turnout trends. Historically, high turnout rates favor Democrats, while low turnout rates favor Republicans. This trend is reflected in recent polls, which show Democrats leading among likely voters but Republicans leading among registered voters.

The importance of turnout was underscored by the 2016 election, in which Donald Trump won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. Trump’s victory was largely attributed to his success in driving up turnout among his base of white, working-class voters in key swing states.

This year, Democrats are hoping to replicate Trump’s strategy by boosting turnout among African Americans, Latinos, and young voters. Republicans, on the other hand, are focused on mobilizing their base of white, rural voters.